Great post! I've always been interested in futurism, but never really studied it seriously, so this more disciplined approach is very insightful for me.
One definition/type of future-forecasting that personally really resonated with me is the idea of 'creating' your own future, rather than just predicting as if from an objective standpoint. I think this method is actually the most pragmatic and powerful IMO because it inherently requires that 'action' aspect you mentioned.
When you 'predict' the future by paying attention to big problems, trends, or dreams and then build products/systems that solve or address those things, you can most reliably be correct.
This of course comes with (or should come with) the responsibility of being ethical, inclusive, and systematic. Otherwise, the future you create may end up being more dystopian than utopian (the story of almost every big tech company).
But much of that is just my own ideas on it, I look forward to checking out what folks like the Institute of the Future say about this.
Always enjoy your perspectives and writing. I'm trying to think of how to help predict things more subjective than objective. Subjective would seem to change more of than objective depending on circumstances (maybe). What are your thoughts. Thank you!
Before I answer I think I need clarification on what it might mean to predict something subjective vs objective. I have thoughts, but I would like that clarification first.
Sure thing. I consider subjective being based on feelings and perspectives and personal data points/societal norms, morals, ethics. For me, in this context, objective is when you have hard, factual data points to help make decisions, i.e being able to take feelings completely out of the equation.
I think I see what you're getting at. There will always be a subjective experience but it is in the prediction of them that things get tricky. As I mentioned in this newsletter the goal shouldn't be to be accurate your prediction, but instead be about what that "prediction" does to change our present. In a subjective sense, what would, for instance, be the emotional impact of working side by side an AI of some sort. We could look at the emotional impact of other tools like Alexa, Google Home, or perhaps more on-the-nose would be ElliQ, an AI Companion being tested with the elderly (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/13/elliq-robot-companion-seniors).
All of this is to say that divorcing a subjective experience from a prediction, and only sticking to "objective" measures gives you only a shallow understanding of the emergent possibilities of the futures.
Great post! I've always been interested in futurism, but never really studied it seriously, so this more disciplined approach is very insightful for me.
One definition/type of future-forecasting that personally really resonated with me is the idea of 'creating' your own future, rather than just predicting as if from an objective standpoint. I think this method is actually the most pragmatic and powerful IMO because it inherently requires that 'action' aspect you mentioned.
When you 'predict' the future by paying attention to big problems, trends, or dreams and then build products/systems that solve or address those things, you can most reliably be correct.
This of course comes with (or should come with) the responsibility of being ethical, inclusive, and systematic. Otherwise, the future you create may end up being more dystopian than utopian (the story of almost every big tech company).
But much of that is just my own ideas on it, I look forward to checking out what folks like the Institute of the Future say about this.
Always enjoy your perspectives and writing. I'm trying to think of how to help predict things more subjective than objective. Subjective would seem to change more of than objective depending on circumstances (maybe). What are your thoughts. Thank you!
Before I answer I think I need clarification on what it might mean to predict something subjective vs objective. I have thoughts, but I would like that clarification first.
Sure thing. I consider subjective being based on feelings and perspectives and personal data points/societal norms, morals, ethics. For me, in this context, objective is when you have hard, factual data points to help make decisions, i.e being able to take feelings completely out of the equation.
I think I see what you're getting at. There will always be a subjective experience but it is in the prediction of them that things get tricky. As I mentioned in this newsletter the goal shouldn't be to be accurate your prediction, but instead be about what that "prediction" does to change our present. In a subjective sense, what would, for instance, be the emotional impact of working side by side an AI of some sort. We could look at the emotional impact of other tools like Alexa, Google Home, or perhaps more on-the-nose would be ElliQ, an AI Companion being tested with the elderly (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/aug/13/elliq-robot-companion-seniors).
All of this is to say that divorcing a subjective experience from a prediction, and only sticking to "objective" measures gives you only a shallow understanding of the emergent possibilities of the futures.